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Mark Hulbert: The surprising lesson Black Friday and Cyber Monday can teach stock-market investors

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — You learn nothing from the initial reports on how retailers fared on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Maybe even less than nothing. This would be useful advice in any year, but it is especially so this year, given how the COVID-19 pandemic has upended many traditional assumptions about the economy in… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: The surprising lesson Black Friday and Cyber Monday can teach stock-market investors

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Mark Hulbert: Here are your odds that stock prices will be higher at the end of 2021

There’s precisely a 73.1% chance that the stock market will rise next year. But before you get too excited about this apparently good news, you should know that these odds are based on nothing more than the proportion of rising years in U.S. stock market history. So I am not shedding any light on 2021… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: Here are your odds that stock prices will be higher at the end of 2021

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Mark Hulbert: Momentum stocks may get an end-of-the-year push, history shows

The next six weeks are shaping up to be especially good for momentum strategies in the stock market. Such strategies lead investors to typically buy the winning stocks over the trailing year and sell (or sell short) the losers. This year the pattern is likely to be particularly strong, for two reasons. The first is… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: Momentum stocks may get an end-of-the-year push, history shows

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Mark Hulbert: What will you do when the bull market tops out?

I have no idea when the bull market on Wall Street will come to an end. But when it does, you almost certainly won’t believe it. Along with the rest of Wall Street, you will be caught up in the euphoria that accompanies a late-stage bull market. Read: How to stay safe at holiday gatherings… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: What will you do when the bull market tops out?

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Mark Hulbert: This is what the election means for interest rates

Don’t expect interest rates to make any big moves either up or down in coming weeks — even if, as seems increasingly likely, Joe Biden is eventually declared the winner of the presidential election. That’s surprising, since a change in the political party in the White House often leads to significant short-term changes in interest… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: This is what the election means for interest rates

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Mark Hulbert: The asset class you probably haven’t even considered

Would you be interested in an asset class that’s not bonds, but safer than stocks, and yields 4.7%? Of course you would. Strangely, though, this class gets very little attention from many retirement financial advisers, and few retirees even guess what it is when I describe it to them. I struggled defining a web search… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: The asset class you probably haven’t even considered

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Mark Hulbert: The stock market is overvalued, according to almost every measure dating to 1950

The stock market has been a gambler’s paradise this year. (Getty Images) The stock market is hugely overvalued when judged against almost any historical standard. That’s the conclusion that jumps out from the accompanying table, which reports the latest readings from eight stock market valuation indicators that have stood the test of time. The table… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: The stock market is overvalued, according to almost every measure dating to 1950

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Mark Hulbert: Most investors now expect the U.S. stock market to crash like it did in October 1987 — why that’s good news

Individual investors have never been more worried about a U.S. stock market crash. That’s great news. This counterintuitive reaction is because investor sentiment is a contrarian indicator. So it would be more worrying if investors thought there was a low probability of a crash. This upbeat news will be particularly welcome after the Dow Jones… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: Most investors now expect the U.S. stock market to crash like it did in October 1987 — why that’s good news

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Mark Hulbert: The stock market’s strength tells us less about the true state of the economy than at almost any other time over the last five decades

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — We can stop debating whether the stock market has become more disconnected from the economy. It undeniably has, according to a just-completed academic study by Rene Stulz, a professor of banking and monetary economics at Ohio State University, and Frederik Schlingemann, a finance professor at the University of Pittsburgh. But don’t… Continue reading Mark Hulbert: The stock market’s strength tells us less about the true state of the economy than at almost any other time over the last five decades